Why International Migration Trends Matter for Canadian Businesses

Canada’s population story is being rewritten, and businesses need to pay attention. In just a decade, the country grew by six million people, and nearly 90 percent of that growth came from international migration. Today, immigrants make up one in four Canadians, and non-permanent residents account for another 7 percent of the population. These shifts aren’t just demographic trivia. They’re reshaping markets, consumer behaviour and demand patterns across every sector.

What’s driving the change? Post-COVID policy adjustments have created dramatic swings in migration levels. Temporary residents surged to record highs in 2022 to 2023, then began dropping sharply after new federal targets were announced. Permanent resident levels are also being recalibrated, with plans signalling slower growth but significant one-time conversions from temporary to permanent status. These fluctuations will influence where growth happens, which communities expand and how cultural diversity evolves. All of these impact marketing strategies.

For businesses, this means two things:

1. Location matters more than ever. Migration trends vary by region, city and even neighbourhood. Some areas will see population stagnation, while others remain magnets for newcomers.
2. Consumer profiles are shifting. Needs and preferences differ between permanent and temporary residents, and cultural backgrounds shape everything from product choices to media habits.

Businesses who track these changes, and leverage tools like Environics Analytics’ (EA) NewToCanada and DemoStats data for granular insights, will be positioned to capture emerging opportunities. Whether it’s tailoring campaigns for international students, optimizing retail site selection or designing culturally relevant messaging, understanding migration dynamics is now a competitive advantage.

Recent trends in international migration

International migration is composed of two streams. The first is permanent residents or immigrants. For over 25 years, the Federal Department of Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has annually published a Levels Plan for permanent resident admissions in future years. Since 2017, this has included planned levels for the next three years, with possible revisions each year.

The second stream of international migrants is temporary or non-permanent residents, comprised of international students and temporary workers who are given permits to remain in Canada for a fixed period. Refugee claimants are also included as non-permanent residents. Until 2024, there was no annual plan for the intake of non-permanent residents.

Over the periods of 2001 to 2020, net immigration added an average of 210,000 people and net non-permanent migration added another 50,000. Overall, growth from international migration was about 0.8 percent of total population.

In the post-COVID period of 2021 to 2025, there has been a major change in the levels of international migration. Over this period, permanent IRCC planned levels gradually increased and reached 483,000 in 2024.

Non-permanent resident migration dramatically increased in the period of 2022 to 2024, with an estimated intake of 914,000 people in 2022, 1,223,000 in 2023 and 945,000 in 2024. By mid-2024, there were 3 million non-permanent residents living in Canada, accounting for 7.3 percent of the total population, up from 3.9 percent in 2022.

Total population growth was about 3 percent in each of the years of 2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024. In this period, Canadian businesses identified this growth as an opportunity. Higher education, utilities like phone and internet companies, retailers, home builders and more, built multi-year, strategic growth plans around this surge in new consumers entering the Canadian market.

In March 2024, the Minister of IRCC, announced that “In recognition of recent, rapid population growth and the shifts in Canada’s economic landscape, the goal is to reduce Temporary Residents (TRs) to 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2026, and a commitment to include TRs in the Levels Plan.” The exact details were formalized in the 2024 IRCC Annual report released in early November 2024. That report also reduced the level for permanent residents in 2025 to 395,000, down from 500,000, which was the level set a year earlier.

Further changes announced in the Federal Budget

The 2025 Federal Budget included the immigration Levels Plan for the three-year period of 2026 to 2028, and further changes were made to planned future levels. For permanent residents, the levels were set at 380,000 for each of the three years from 2026 to 2028 – only a small difference from levels announced a year earlier. However, in addition, over the years of 2026 to 2027, there is also planned to be a one-time addition to permanent residents of 115,000 protected persons already in Canada, and up to 33,000 temporary foreign workers who will be granted permanent status. As a result, the actual number of new permanent residents might be closer to 450,000 in each of 2026 and 2027.

The Budget also indicated that the number of new international students and temporary workers entering Canada would further decline to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028, down from an estimated 673,000 in 2025. The goal remains to have the total non-permanent resident population down to 5 percent of the total population by 2027.

These changes have significant implications for businesses that built growth plans in 2023 and early 2024. They must rescale plans and projections to reflect a much smaller, yet still important, audience that is shrinking below 2020 levels. Marketers need to understand the new trends and be able to adjust their plans and find the neighbourhoods with greatest growth potential.

Tracking international migration trends

In addition to the importance of immigration as the main driver of population growth, it is important to track international migration trends from a marketing point of view. Both new permanent residents and temporary residents represent opportunities to attract new clients for products and services. The following is a summary of recent trends based on EA’s NewToCanada (NTC) data.

The NTC dataset provides quarterly estimates of the number of new permanent residents and approved permits for temporary residents for a rolling period of four quarters or twelve months. The estimates are based on IRCC data. Estimates are available for all geographic levels down to the dissemination level. In addition to data on the total number of migrants, NTC includes a breakdown of migrants by 15 world regions of citizenship and 20 selected individual countries of citizenship.

Total migration

Chart 1 shows the trend in the number of migrants over the period of 2015 to 2025. The impact of the reduction in planned levels can be seen in the drop of permanent residents in 2025 to an estimated 390,000, down from 484,000 in 2024. Although the planned IRCC level for 2026 to 2028 is 380,000, the special one-time conversion of protected persons and temporary workers already in Canada will mean the new permanent residents may be closer to 450,000 in each of the next two years. Of note is the fact that, in recent years, about half of new permanent residents were non-permanent residents who had been in Canada for a period of time. Over the next few years this might rise to 60 to 65 percent of new permanent residents because of the one-time transfer of people from temporary to permanent status.

The impact of the reduction in the levels for non-permanent residents can be seen in the drops in 2024 and 2025. The next two years should see a continuation of this drop, if the target of 5 percent non-permanent residents is to be attained by 2027.

The drop in international migration will be reflected in very low population growth, or even a small decline in total population, over the next few years. The low growth will be particularly evident in Ontario and British Columbia, since both have many non-permanent residents. There was virtually no growth in these provinces in the first half of 2025.

The destination of migrants

Chart 2 shows the top 10 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) for both permanent and non-permanent residents in 2024. Not surprisingly, the largest CMAs have the highest number of migrants. However, when compared to population, the rankings are different. In Saskatoon and Ottawa-Gatineau, permanent residents accounted for 2.3 percent of the total population in 2024, compared to 0.8 percent in Montreal. There is a similar difference for non-permanent residents. In Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, non-permanent resident permit approvals were 7.2 percent of total population, and in Vancouver, they were 6.5 percent. The lowest level was in Edmonton, where approvals were 3 percent of population. Areas with a high per capita level of international migrants are likely to experience low population growth because the drop in non-permanent residents is likely larger in these areas.

The NewToCanada data also provides destinations at more granular levels. For example: Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs), Census Tracts (CTs) and Census Dissemination Areas (DAs).

Chart 3 shows the destinations of non-permanent residents in 2024 by FSA in the city of Toronto. Marketers can unlock growth by focusing on newcomers in the right neighbourhoods and postal areas. Instead of broad strategies and campaigns from 2023 and early 2024, marketers need to be more precise in their targeting to reach these high potential ‘new’ potential consumers, where they live. With accurate location data, they can design tailored strategies that connect with newcomers in the most relevant places.

The origins of migrants

International migrants to Canada come from many different countries. Chart 4 shows the top citizenships of migrants in 2024 for 20 selected countries. India accounted for 26 percent of permanent residents, four times as many as the second-ranked country, the Philippines.

A more detailed analysis of all counties shows that, in the last few years, a few counties not included in the NTC data have moved into the top 10 of all countries. These are Cameroon, Eritrea and Afghanistan.

India accounts for an even greater share of non-permanent residents (32 percent), over four times the number from Ukraine in second place.

Not all newcomers in Canada will respond to the same marketing message or call-to-action. Knowing where your audience comes from is critical for effective marketing. People bring cultural preferences, shopping habits and brand expectations from their home countries. When you understand these origins, you can create messages that feel relevant and build trust. This insight helps you choose the right products, channels and tone. Great marketers will turn diversity into a competitive advantage.

Summary

There have been considerable fluctuations in the level of international migration in the post-COVID era because of changes in government policies. These will have important implications for population growth that will vary by geographic location. In addition, the changes have implications from a marketing perspective as the population characteristics of new permanent and non-permanent residents may change.

It will be important for businesses to monitor these changes. You need data that will keep you abreast of the changes in the population overall and provide you with reliable benchmarks at actionable geographies. Marketers also need data that can break down this audience into the nuances that will direct and feed offers, creative and execution. Currently, Canada’s population growth is still reliant on immigration. That is not changing any time soon. The scope and scale of immigration have shifted. However, marketers that can still identify and reach the new immigration population have an advantage over the competition.

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Learn more about EA’s NewToCanada (NTC) data