New 2026 DemoStats Reveal Shifts Reshaping the Canadian Market

Published May 20, 2026, 09:35 AM by Environics Analytics

Canada’s population growth has slowed to historic lows, with cities shrinking, smaller centres growing, and diversity and aging rising—requiring more precise, locally and culturally tailored marketing strategies.

For senior marketing leaders, this is not just a demographic update. It is a strategic reset. The assumptions that underpinned growth, targeting and media investment over the past decade no longer hold.

Canada’s population growth hits a historic low

New DemoStats data from Environics Analytics (EA) reveal Canada’s population grew at the lowest rate in the nation’s history, signalling a change in how businesses must approach the Canadian market. The 2026 version of DemoStats estimates Canada’s population at 41.4 million, an increase of just 0.14 percent over the previous year. Recent preliminary Statistics Canada quarterly estimates indicate the population declined slightly over the first six months of 2025. This marks the lowest growth Canada has ever experienced and reflects immigration policy changes announced in 2025.

While the number of new permanent residents has declined, most of the slowdown is driven by a sharp reduction in non permanent residents. In October 2024, non permanent residents accounted for 7.6 percent of Canada’s population, double the share recorded in 2021. Current policy aims to reduce this share to 5 percent by 2027, pointing to minimal growth or slight decline through 2026 and 2027. Growth is projected to resume at about one percent annually beginning in 2028, assuming future immigration targets align with pre pandemic norms.

For marketers, slower population growth increases pressure on retention, share of wallet and lifetime value. Growth will come less from market expansion and more from smarter segmentation, sharper value propositions and deeper relevance across existing audiences.

The three largest CMAs decline in population

Canada’s largest Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) are shrinking. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are expected to experience population declines driven by fewer non permanent residents and ongoing out migration to smaller urban centres. At the same time, Calgary, Moncton, Brantford, Edmonton and Fredericton are emerging as Canada’s fastest growing metropolitan areas.

Smaller urban centres such as Wasaga Beach, Tillsonburg, Elliot Lake and Lachute are also projected to grow faster due to affordability, lifestyle shifts and lower reliance on non permanent residents.

This represents a redistribution of opportunity. Media efficiency, retail footprints and service models designed around Canada’s largest cities may no longer deliver optimal returns. Growth strategies must follow people, not legacy market hierarchies.

Population growth varies across the country

All provinces and territories are expected to see declines in population growth between 2025 and 2026. Alberta and Prince Edward Island are the only provinces projected to grow by more than one percent. Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Newfoundland and Labrador are expected to experience small population declines.

This uneven growth challenges national “one size fits all” strategies. Senior marketers will need to rebalance geographic priorities, regional investment and channel mix to align with where demand is stabilizing versus where it is accelerating.

The immigrant population continues to grow

Although overall population growth is expected to flatten in the near term, the immigrant population continues to expand. Immigration to Canada is projected at approximately 450,000 annually in 2026 and 2027 before easing to 380,000 in 2028. DemoStats estimates immigrants will account for 25.5 percent of Canadians in 2026, up from 23.5 percent in 2021 and rising to 28.4 percent by 2036.

For marketing leaders, immigration remains one of the most important drivers of long term demand. Brands that invest in culturally informed insights, inclusive messaging and experiences will be better positioned to build trust and relevance at scale.

Cultural diversity continues to increase

Canada’s racialized population is estimated at 13.5 million in 2026, representing nearly one third of the total population. South Asian Canadians remain the largest group at 3.8 million, reflecting sustained immigration from India.

This community is not niche. It is mainstream. Marketing strategies that treat cultural diversity as an “add on” rather than a core growth lever risk missing where future consumption, influence and brand loyalty are being shaped.

Canada’s senior population continues to grow, especially at older ages

Canadians aged 65 and over now represent 20.2 percent of the population, or 8.4 million people, up from 18.4 percent five years ago. This share is projected to reach 23.3 percent by 2036, with the strongest growth among those aged 75 and over as the Baby Boom cohort continues to age.

Senior households accounted for an estimated 22 percent of consumer spending in 2025, surpassing younger household cohorts. Preferences and needs shift significantly as people age, with profound implications for housing, healthcare, retail, financial services and beyond.

The opportunity is clear. Older consumers are not a declining market. They are an evolving one that demands smarter product design, clearer communication and a more nuanced understanding of life stage, not age alone.

What this means for marketing leaders

DemoStats provides up-to-date demographic trends and insights on Canadians nationally and regionally. But its greatest value is reflecting how these trends are playing out in the specific markets – the retail trade areas and consumer markets – that matter to your business. In fact, all EA data do this. Knowing the evolving demographic, behavioural and attitudinal characteristics of your marketplace allows you to respond with speed, precision and relevance which gives you an edge in a competitive marketplace.

2026 DemoStats point to a more complex, more regional and more competitive Canadian market. Growth will favour organizations that move beyond broad demographics toward precision, empathy and insight led decision making. Building a 360° of your customers and prospects by using the most up-to-date data including DemoStats, PRIZM^® and EA’s other behavioural and psychographic data is more important than ever. Canada is changing. Is your marketing strategy changing too?

If you are rethinking where to invest, who to prioritize or how to futureproof your brand, this is the moment to revisit your assumptions.

Let’s start the conversation about what these shifts mean for your business.